Turn your view into a position.

Say what you think will happen and what you're willing to lose. Thesis finds the contracts, sizes the trade, shows what settles how, and executes when you approve.

Orders are placed in your own venue accounts. Thesis never holds your funds.
Early accessPrediction markets · 2 venuesFirst category · US rates
› Thesis
›⌘K
Venue A 38msVenue B 61ms|Buying power $1,850.50|14:32:07 ET
“I think the Fed funds upper bound will be at least 3.75% after the December meeting. I'm willing to lose $500.”● INTERPRETED
OBSERVABLEFF upper bound ▾THRESHOLD≥ 3.75% ▾BYDec FOMC ▾MAX LOSS$500.00 ▾Interpretation uses only the observable, threshold, and period stated above.
Contracts that express this view 5 · 2 venuesSort: relation ▾   Direct / Basket
VenueContractSideBidAskSpreadDepth@askImpliedRelation to view
AFed funds upper bound ≥ 3.75% after Dec FOMCYES40¢41¢1¢3,40041%● Equivalent · best
BFed funds upper bound ≥ 3.75% after Dec FOMCYES39¢43¢4¢90043%● Equivalent
BFed funds upper bound ≤ 3.50% after Dec FOMCNO58¢60¢2¢1,50040%◕ Contract broader · via NO
AFed holds at December meetingYES55¢57¢2¢12,10057%? Unable to verify
ANo rate cuts Jul–Dec 2026YES18¢20¢2¢2,25020%◔ Contract narrower
A · FF upper ≥ 3.75% Dec · YES price1W1M3MALL
41¢▼ 11¢ · 3MLast 41¢24h vol 182,400OI 1.2M
60¢50¢40¢30¢Jun 18Jul 30Sep 3TodayAug CPI 3.1%Sep FOMC −25your limit 41¢Sep 11 · CPI39¢ · vol 41k
Payoff at settlement · 1,199 YES @ 41¢
Upper bound ≥ 3.75% · YES+699.02
Upper bound < 3.75% · NO−499.98
Break-even probability41.7%
Reward : risk1.40 : 1
Resolution · Venue ASource →

YES if the upper bound of the fed funds target range in the December FOMC statement is ≥ 3.75%. Inter-meeting moves count. Delayed meeting: first statement after the scheduled date.

Equivalent. The winning conditions match within the verified observable, threshold, and period.

Book · combined · FF upper ≥ 3.75% Dec2 venues
Buy YESafter feeafter feeBuy NO
A80041¢
B90041¢
A5,10042¢
B2,20043¢
A8,00044¢
B1,90045¢
59¢2,800A
60¢4,000B
61¢6,500A
62¢1,200B
63¢3,300A
64¢4,500B
YES 40 / 41 · NO 58 / 59Last 41¢ · 14:31:52Ranked by price + fee
Ticket · routedSized to max loss
YES 41¢
NO 59¢
Limit price
−42¢+
Max loss ● sizing
$500.00
Route
Best priceVenue AVenue B
Route preview2 orders
A800 YES @ 41¢$333.60
B389 YES @ 41¢$161.79
Avg incl. fees41.66¢
Max loss−$495.39
Payout if YES · net$1,189.00 · +$693.61
$4.31 cheaper than the best single venue
BUY 1,189 YES · 2 ORDERS⏎ review
Each order fills on its own venue. Routing only combines venues whose rules settle the same way.
Positions 2Resting orders 0FillsLog
Mark: liquidation / mid   At risk −386.00   Unrealized +42.10
Thesis · contractVenueSideQtyAvgMarkValueP&LMax lossSettles
●No shutdown before Oct 1 · Govt funded through Oct 1BYES60064¢71¢$426.00+42.10−386.00Oct 1
●Aug CPI above 3% y/y · CPI YoY > 3.0% AugAYES30060¢0¢$0.00−180.00—Settled
The Thesis terminal on the Fed example. Sample data, two venues.
Why Thesis

Most trading tools start from a ticker. Thesis starts from a sentence. You describe the outcome, the deadline and what you're willing to lose. The terminal finds the contracts that express it across venues, labels how faithfully each one does, sizes the position to your max loss, and shows what settles how before anything is placed.

Fig 01
OBSERVABLEFF upper bound ▾BYDec FOMC ▾
THRESHOLDFF upper ≥ 3.75% ▾MAX LOSS$500.00 ▾
All interpreted fields come from the stated view or explicit clarification.

Interpretation you can see

Every field the model read is shown and editable. Nothing is guessed silently.

Fig 02
● EQUIVALENT◐ OVERLAP◔ CONTRACT NARROWER? UNKNOWN
You saidFewer cuts than markets price
Settles onFF upper bound ≥ 3.75% in Dec

Relationship, labelled

Each contract is compared by winning conditions, with uncertainty and the verified gap spelled out.

Fig 03
Max loss ● sizing
$500.00
Contracts
1,199
Cost + fees$499.98
Net if right+$699.02

Sized to your loss, not a quantity

Give a budget. The order is sized so cost plus fees never exceed it.

How it works

Five steps between a sentence and a settled contract.

Say itType the view the way you'd say it. The command line reads the outcome, deadline and loss budget, then asks the one question that changes the trade.
›I think the Fed funds upper bound will be at least 3.75% after the December meeting. I'm willing to lose $500.esc
Observable FF upper boundThreshold ≥ 3.75%By Dec FOMCMax loss $500.009 markets · 2 venues · 140ms
Which threshold counts as “less than markets expect”?↑↓ to choose
1FF upper bound ≥ 3.75% after December FOMCSame observable, threshold, and observation period.2 contracts · A, Bbest 41¢ · 3,400● equivalent
2FF upper bound > 3.50% via NOBroader: 3.51% through 3.74% also wins.1 contract · Bbest 60¢ · 1,500◕ contract broader
3No cuts at all through DecemberNarrower: some rate paths above 3.75% still lose.1 contract · Abest 20¢ · 2,250◔ contract narrower
4Not expressible as listed: “relative to market pricing” has no market. Thesis shows the closest proxy and the gap.
⏎ construct⇥ edit fields⌘⏎ construct and reviewRecent · shutdown oct 1 · cpi aug
See the relationshipMost views don't map cleanly onto one contract. Thesis names the verified gap between what you said and what the contract settles on.
Relation to view◕ CONTRACT BROADER
You saidThe December meeting cuts exactly 25 bps.
Contract settles onThe venue's rounded 25-bps cut bucket.
Gap. A 12.5-bps cut also enters this contract's 25-bps bucket, so the contract can win while the stated view is false.
● EQUIVALENT◐ OVERLAP◔ CONTRACT NARROWER? UNKNOWN
Size to your lossYou give a budget, not a quantity. The ticket sizes the order so cost plus fees never exceed it, and shows the fill estimate against depth.
Ticket · routedSized to max loss
YES 41¢
NO 59¢
Limit price
−42¢+
Max loss ● sizing
$500.00
Route
Best priceVenue AVenue B
Route preview2 orders
A800 YES @ 41¢$333.60
B389 YES @ 41¢$161.79
Avg incl. fees41.66¢
Max loss−$495.39
Payout if YES · net$1,189.00 · +$693.61
$4.31 cheaper than the best single venue
BUY 1,189 YES · 2 ORDERS⏎ review
Each order fills on its own venue. Routing only combines venues whose rules settle the same way.
Take the best priceOne book merged across venues and ranked by price after fees. Routing splits the order where it is cheapest; you approve it.
Book · combined · FF upper ≥ 3.75% Dec2 venues
Buy YESafter feeafter feeBuy NO
A80041¢
B90041¢
A5,10042¢
B2,20043¢
A8,00044¢
B1,90045¢
59¢2,800A
60¢4,000B
61¢6,500A
62¢1,200B
63¢3,300A
64¢4,500B
YES 40 / 41 · NO 58 / 59Last 41¢ · 14:31:52Ranked by price + fee
Stay on trackAfter the fill, Thesis watches the thing you believe, not just the price, and alerts you when they diverge.
Is the view still on track?
EntryNow
Implied Dec cuts50 bps38 bps
Contract mark41¢46¢
Contract ↔ view—aligned
Unrealized—+59.95

Alert fires if implied cuts fall below 25 bps while the contract stays under 50¢: the case where you're right and the contract isn't.

Built for

Traders who already have views and lose time turning them into positions.

  • ●You trade rates, macro or event contracts occasionally and form your own opinions.
  • ●You've searched two venues, read settlement rules, and still weren't sure the contract said what you meant.
  • ●You think in “I'll risk $500 on this”, not in contract counts.
Not for

Anyone who wants to be told what to trade.

  • ○Thesis doesn't generate views, predict outcomes or recommend trades. You bring the conviction.
  • ○Initial coverage is one event category on two venues. If you need everything on day one, wait for us.
  • ○If no supported candidate is found in the searched scope, Thesis says so instead of forcing a proxy.
How Thesis handles your money
CustodyYour funds stay at the venue.

Thesis places orders in your own venue accounts. It never holds, moves or pools your money.

ExecutionNothing is placed until you approve it.

Limit by default, never chased above your price. Partial fills are kept and re-sized, not topped up.

AdviceNone. You bring the view.

Thesis doesn't generate views or recommend trades. It shows the contracts that express yours and how faithfully.

Where we are

Early development. Looking for design partners.

We're recruiting traders to work through real recent decisions with us, get manual position proposals for real requests, and try the first narrow prototype.

We reply personally. No waitlist emails. Or write to [YOUR EMAIL].